Three Ways to Skin the Asset Allocation Cat

December 02, 2019

Over the past several weeks, you’ve heard me talk a lot about investing and for good reason. Investing is one of the most important parts of any financial goal or wealth accumulation strategy. The problem, like with most things, is that there is no one perfect way to do it. You probably know the basics—diversify, re-balance, dollar-cost average—but did you realize that there are at least three forms of asset allocation? Knowing what they are, how they are different, and which one may be right for you could make you a better investor over time.

Strategic asset allocation

Strategic asset allocation is the one you are probably most familiar with and the one most often used by financial advisors and professionals. The objective of strategic asset allocation is to find an optimal portfolio that offers the highest potential return for any given level of risk. It usually starts with a risk tolerance assessment, followed by a recommendation of how you should split up your assets between stocks, bonds and cash.

Rather than being a typical buy-and-hold strategy, strategic asset allocation requires ongoing attention as certain asset classes perform differently at different times. As such, rebalancing is a key component of strategic asset allocation. Since rebalancing causes investors to sell out of asset classes that are outperforming in order to buy into asset classes that are underperforming, it forces the investor to buy low and sell high. For this reason, some might consider it a contrarian approach to investing.

Buying low and selling high is one potential advantage of strategic asset allocation. Another is reduced volatility. By keeping the ratio of stocks to bonds within a targeted range, potential returns are also expected to stay within a certain range. Investors can implement a strategic asset allocation strategy in a number of ways, including following the guidance of a financial advisor, using an online financial advisory service, or by investing in a target-date fund.

Tactical asset allocation

Ironically, what a lot of investors may think they are getting when they hire a financial professional is tactical asset allocation. The objective of tactical asset allocation is to improve portfolio returns by periodically changing the investment mix to reflect changes in the market. It may seem logical to move assets into fixed income when interest rates are high and away from fixed income when interest rates are low, but tactical asset allocation involves security selection and market timing—two things that are often considered taboo in the investment universe.

Tactical asset allocation can be as simple as sector rotation, such as moving assets away from the best performing sector to the worst performing sector, or as sophisticated as using charts and graphs to try and predict market movements. Style preference (growth v. value) can also be important when using a tactical asset allocation strategy. Investors should exercise caution when using a tactical asset allocation approach as market trends can sometimes last longer or shorter than expected.

Since the goal of tactical asset allocation is to try and increase performance by timing the market and moving money around, it would be appropriate for an investor with a high tolerance for risk, a low sensitivity to taxes, and an ability to devote time to developing and monitoring buy and sell indicators. Investors that wish to utilize a tactical asset allocation strategy should decide whether they will use actively-managed mutual funds, passively-managed index funds or ETFs, or individual securities. Investors may be able to implement this strategy with a financial advisor or on their own through a self-directed brokerage account.

Core/satellite asset allocation

If you are not sure which approach to take, why not take both? The objective of core/satellite asset allocation is to enhance performance by investing in two portfolios. The larger of the two (i.e., the core) typically represents 60-80% of the total portfolio and uses strategic asset allocation for determining its holdings. The remaining share (i.e., the satellite) uses tactical asset allocation to take advantage of market opportunities as they arise. For the core component, you may want to use low-cost index or exchange traded funds (ETFs) and rebalance periodically. For the satellite portion, you can use any combination of funds, individual securities, real estate (e.g. REIT), commodities, options, etc., based on where you see market opportunity.

The benefit of this approach is that it gives you a disciplined investment strategy via the core while still allowing you to “play” the market with the satellite portion. If you make some good investment decisions with the satellite, you enhance your return. If your investment instincts are not so great, you still have the core working for you.

The core/satellite approach may be appropriate for investors that want to test their knowledge of investing against the market by comparing the performance of the satellite to that of the core. It would also be appropriate for investors that want to get more involved in investing but not all at once. Because there is a tactical component, investors will need to consider how much time they can devote to managing the portfolio before taking this approach.

As you can see, there are several ways to build an investment portfolio. Choose the one that is right for you based on your objective and level of involvement. And don’t forget to get help when needed.

Would You Consider This One Thing To Be A ‘Conservative Investment?’

December 22, 2017

As someone who has a moderately aggressive investment approach, I recently had a conversation with a friend who has a very aggressive investment approach (in my opinion) that made me rethink a piece of my investment philosophy.

Safe lifestyle, ‘risky’ investing style

Here’s his story: he & his wife, who are both 50, have put four kids through college (all four graduated with absolutely no student loans), will completely pay off their mortgage by age 55, and have amassed roughly $500,000 in the combination of their 401(k) plans & IRAs. They have no significant savings outside of retirement plans, but given the amount of spending they have done on the kids’ education, that is hardly a thing to worry about today.

They are hard workers and excellent savers. Their lifestyle entails very little in the way of risky behavior — they eat nutritiously, exercise regularly, do good deeds in the community, and live a fairly frugal lifestyle. We had never talked about money before, so I was surprised at what I learned — I guess I just assumed he’d be relatively averse to market risk with his investments as well.

All-in with stocks

When we started talking about how our retirement accounts are invested, he told me that he is invested 100% in the stock market and has no plans to “get more boring & conservative” over time. When I expressed surprise at his attitude toward completely excluding bonds and cash, even as he approaches retirement age, he said something that changed my perspective. In his opinion, Social Security fulfills the “conservative” bucket in his overall investment life.

Doing the math

According to his math, since he plans to work another 12 years (to get to age 62), between contributions to his retirement accounts and the growth of that money, he is expecting to have about $1 million saved at that point. If they retire at 62, he and his wife will receive roughly $2,800 per month in Social Security income ($1,500 for him, $1,300 for her).

Social security as an income-producing asset

Here’s the twist: since he considers Social Security income his “bond & cash” portion of his investment portfolio, he calculated its equivalent in income-producing bonds. He assumes that if you buy long term US Treasury Bonds, you should average a 4% – 5% rate of return over a long period of time. How much would you need in Treasuries to earn $2,800/month?

Using his return estimate, he would need to have between $672,000 and $840,000 invested in bonds producing 4 – 5% in order to generate a solid $2,800/month indefinitely. So, when looking at his $500,000 retirement accounts, he thinks he has way less than 100% invested in stocks. In his viewpoint, his current mix is 37% stocks, 63% bonds because of the $840,000 that would be required to generate that Social Security income (he used the biggest number available to exaggerate his point!).

Competing viewpoints

I thought he was an aggressive investor because of the way his accounts are invested and he thinks his portfolio is far too conservative. While I think he has a point, I don’t think it’s an appropriate way for most of America to start viewing their investment accounts — Social Security isn’t a given for most people under the age of 45, and he doesn’t factor in the fact that he can’t tap his SS payment early if he needs a lump sum for something like a new roof or hip replacement. But it is an interesting way to look at any type of guaranteed monthly income, since that is a relatively safe “investment.”

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Why is an Index Important in Investing?

May 22, 2017

Everywhere you turn, you hear or read personal finance experts advocating the use of index funds in your portfolio. Employees often call our Financial Helpline asking if their 401(k) funds are index funds or wondering what exactly an index fund is and how to pick the right one for them. They also ask how they can know if their mutual fund is performing well. The key to both is understanding indexes.

An index is a statistic

An index is a statistic measure of change in the prices of major groups of stocks or bonds which represent an area of the overall market. In investing, indexes are used as a guide to constructing portfolios, and to set a starting point (benchmark) and measure portfolio performance over time. Indexes are usually capitalization-weighted, meaning that the largest companies have the most influence on the index. Common indexes like this include:

  • The S&P 500®, which includes 500 large companies in a market capitalization weighting, and is widely viewed as a benchmark for the U.S. stock market. If you’ve got a “large company growth fund” in your retirement account, it’s likely its performance will be compared to the S&P 500. You can track the index by entering symbol SPX.
  • The NASDAQ Composite Index includes all the stocks which trade on the NASDAQ market. It includes a lot of technology companies, but isn’t limited to them. You can track this by entering symbol IXIC.
  • The Russell 2000 Index includes 2,000 small companies in the U.S. You can track this by entering symbol RUT. If you’ve got a “small company” or “small cap” fund in your retirement account, it’s likely that its performance will be compared to the Russell 2000.
  • The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index tracks a range of types of fixed income securities to represent the types of bonds in the bond market. If you have a “total U.S. corporate bond” fund in your retirement account, it is likely its performance will be compared to the Bloomberg Barclay’s U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Bloomberg Barclays has many common bond indexes and you can find and track yours here.

Another well-known index that is frequently reported as an indicator of the total U.S. economy, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is a measure of 30 U.S. blue chip stocks from all industries except transportation and utilities. It is a price-weighted average, which means that the most expensive stocks influence the index the most. You can track this by entering symbol DJIA.

An index fund mimics the index

An index fund is a type of mutual fund with a portfolio designed either to match directly or track the performance of an index. For example, an S&P 500 index fund would hold stocks of the companies in the S&P 500 index in direct proportion to how they are represented in the index. When you choose an index fund, you’re choosing a passive method of managing your investments. You won’t outperform the index, but should closely track the performance of the index, with slight underperformance due to trading costs and fees. Index funds are a great way to minimize the fees in your retirement plan or other investment portfolio, which can really add up over a long period of time. Not all index funds are created equally, however, so make sure you read the fund fact sheet and prospectus before you invest. Not sure about how to choose the right funds for you in your retirement account? Start here with an easy to read post from fellow planner Kelley Long on how investing is like choosing a pizza.

An index gives you a way to compare how you’re doing

Comparing your mutual fund to an index that contains similar stocks or bonds is an excellent way to measure how your fund is doing over time. A fund will generally disclose its benchmark, the index against which the fund management measures its performance. For a passive index fund strategy, the comparison is simple. An actively managed fund, which is designed to try to beat an index (although most don’t), may have a composite benchmark (made up of several indexes in pre-set proportions).

The upshot: do a review of your retirement accounts and other investments. Do you own index funds, and if so, what indexes do they track? Do you have a diversified portfolio of funds which track different indexes? Do you have actively managed funds, and if so, what indexes are they measured against? How did they do? If you’re not sure about where to start, call your Financial Helpline or call your financial coach if you have one.

Do you have a question you’d like answered on the blog? Please email me at [email protected]. You can follow me on the blog by signing up here and on Twitter @cynthiameyer_FF.

What’s the Market Going to Do Next?

April 28, 2017

One of the questions I’ve been getting asked A LOT recently is what I think the stock market is going to do. My usual answer is that it’s going to go up, and it’s going to go down. The only thing I don’t know is how much it will go in either direction or when the tide will turn. In essence, I’m useless when it comes to predicting the future movements of the stock market. That usually leads to a conversation around their retirement timeline, their ability/willingness to absorb losses in the stock market and their opinions about the future.

It was right after one of these calls that I read this story about a hedge fund manager who is giving back $1.25 BILLION in cash to the investors in his fund! That’s astounding, primarily because that’s over a billion dollars that the fund will no longer get paid a fee to manage. Even a small fee on over a billion dollars is a pretty big amount of money to give up.

Why is he doing this? He’s concerned that the stock market is overvalued and that he can’t find the right investments to buy in order to give his investors the type of returns he would like to provide. Now, let’s not shed any tears for him. He’s still got over $16 billion invested, and I’m pretty sure that’s enough to keep the lights on and food on the table.

But it is tangible evidence of someone believing that the stock market might be a bit overpriced right now. There are also managers who believe that the market, because of economic growth, job growth and corporate earnings – is poised to move upward for quite some time. (I’m still solidly in the camp of “I don’t know which way the market is going.”)

But whether the market goes up or down or sideways in the next few months to the next 3-5 years shouldn’t prompt you to take any action. The key to long term wealth building (and that’s why we all invest) is to pick a strategy and stick to it in good and bad markets. Investors who did nothing in response to the market collapse of 2008 were better off within a few years than the day before the crash. Those who moved everything out of stocks as the market tanked or after the market tanked may still not be whole.

The first thing you can do is to understand who you are as an investor. Here’s a quick investment risk quiz that can help you figure this out and gives you some hypothetical portfolios that might be appropriate for your particular risk tolerance. When your overall risk level changes due to changing time horizons, retirement goals, age, family circumstances, etc, it’s time to reallocate your long term investments.

When pressed for time, I ask a one question risk tolerance quiz. “On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 is the most conservative investor in the world (money in the mattress) and 10 is the most aggressive (willing to put all of your money on a couple stocks and see what happens) – what number would you give yourself?” If someone answers 3 or 4 then 30-40% of their long term investment portfolio could be allocated toward high growth/high risk investments like stocks.

It’s by no means a comprehensive approach, but it has a very consistent answer with the other quiz above as well as other similar quizzes. In a former role, I had about a dozen clients take 5 or 6 different risk profile quizzes. They all came out with roughly the same answer and it was pretty darn close to the one question risk quiz.

So in spite of the fact that a hedge fund manager is giving back a big chunk of money to investors because he thinks the market is overvalued and other managers are incredibly optimistic about the markets moving forward, your goal as an investor is to understand who you are, get to an asset allocation that is consistent with your time lines and goals, and don’t get too high when things are good or too low when things are bad. From my experience, emotions are the enemy of good decision making and this applies to investing as well. Markets, like many things in life, are cyclical and if you’re patient and consistent, good things usually happen.

 

Why You Should Love Investing

April 13, 2017

When a lot of people think of financial planning, they think of investing…with dread. It sounds complicated, time consuming, and risky. But for me, investing is actually my favorite part of financial planning. Let me tell you why…

In most areas of life, we generally get what we put in, whether that’s in terms of the price we pay or the amount of time and hard work we expend. In other words, you get what you pay for. However, investing is the one area of life where you get rewarded for being both cheap and lazy.

Let’s start with the first step, which is diversification. As you’ve probably heard, you don’t want to put all your eggs in one basket, but you still have to decide how many of your “eggs” or money to put in each “basket” or asset class: stocks, bonds, cash, and real assets. What makes this confusing is that there’s a ton of conflicting views on this so investment expert Meb Faber decided to compare 9 of the top recommended asset allocation strategies by various other investment experts and see how they performed since the 1970s. What he found is that the difference between the best and the worst performing strategy was only 1.6% and if you removed the worst performing portfolio (which is an outlier since it only has 25% in stocks), the difference was only 1%. When he compared the models of the major financial institutions, he found that the difference was only about half a percent.

However, just because they ended up in similar places doesn’t mean that they performed similarly from year to year. Each of the models had many years in which they outperformed and many in which they under-performed. If you chose a model based on which was the top performing over the previous decade, you would actually have done much worse. Whether you use a one-stop shop asset allocation fund, a robo-advisor, one of the model portfolios listed in one of Faber’s blog posts above, or a financial advisor’s recommendation, which portfolio you pick is less important than that you pick one (to make sure you’re reasonably diversified) and stick with it through thick and thin. (Everyone, even Warren Buffett, has periods of under-performance.)

There’s one other way you can sabotage your returns: costs. It’s been estimated that the average mutual fund costs .9% a year in expenses and 1.44% a year in transaction costs. (This doesn’t even include any loads or commissions you may pay to purchase the fund.) That 2.34% would be enough to turn the best performing strategy into the worst.

It’s not like you’re getting anything for those costs either. In fact, a recent Morningstar study called low fund fees “the most proven predictor of future fund returns.” Warren Buffett has said the same thing. So as you choose which funds to use in your portfolio, look for ones with low fees (called the expense ratio) and low turnover (which leads to lower transaction costs). If index funds are available, they tend to have the lowest costs and hence tend to outperform more expensive actively managed funds over long periods of time.

The moral of the story is that investment success boils down to three simple rules:

  1. Be diversified. Pick a reasonably diversified portfolio. Don’t be a greedy pig (bet on individual stocks) or a fearful chicken (keep all your money in bonds and cash). After all, both pigs and chickens get slaughtered.
  2. Be cheap. Use low cost funds to implement your asset allocation strategy. In this case, you get what you don’t pay for.
  3. Be lazy. Once you have your portfolio, stick with it. Don’t try to time the market or otherwise, mess with it other than to rebalance it periodically back to the original allocation or to switch to lower cost funds as they become available.

Think about it. Where else are you most rewarded for being both cheap and lazy? Now do you love investing? If so, the first step is to save so you have something to invest, but that’s another story…

 

Do You Really Know What You’re Investing In?

November 04, 2016

My kids, some coworkers, and it seems like the whole world around me are big fans of Twitter. In fact, some of the podcasts I listen to mention Twitter as the hosts’ #1 source for breaking news. I guess I haven’t ever seen that platform as one that works for me and when Twitter became a publicly traded company, I chose not to buy the stock because I couldn’t figure out their revenue model.

I also thought “speaking” in 140 characters or less was a way to degrade the way people communicate. I already despise “text speak.” Character limitations have given us degradations of the English language like UR, BRB, LOL and the worst of all possible things…emojis! (And while I’m at it, get off of my lawn!)

I am a big fan of words and grammar and punctuation. There’s a huge difference between “Let’s eat, Grandma” and “Let’s eat Grandma.” Punctuation can save lives!

With this mindset, I have been watching the world of technology companies and see that Yahoo was for sale recently and the price paid was far less than it would have been when Yahoo was one of the kings of the technology hill. Now Twitter is for sale and potential bidders keep opting out of the deal.  There are fewer suitors as time moves forward and the potential sale price keeps dropping. The moral of the story for me is that just because something is cool and trendy and “everyone loves it”, it doesn’t always translate into a wonderful business model.

I’m a huge fan of Sirius satellite radio and have it on constantly. Just because I’m a loyal customer, doesn’t mean I want to be an investor. Again, cool stuff is awesome as a consumer, not always wonderful as an investor.

As you think about investing your hard-earned dollars, be very aware of the “cool effect” (not a real term, I’m making it up for this blog). Sometimes in situations like Apple and Google, a “cool effect” translates well into a cool investment that produces great returns for an extended window of time. But those are far more the exception than the rule.

One of the rules I use when evaluating if I want to invest in a particular company (which I rarely do anymore) is that I absolutely MUST understand what the company does and how they earn their money. I’m still mystified by Facebook! Do people really buy that many ads or pay for that many games? No one I know has ever spent a dime on that platform, so either I know the wrong people or I just can’t grasp what they’re doing to generate revenue and profits.

Do you know what you’re investing in? Most people I meet don’t really know where to begin to answer that question. Even at the top level of stocks vs. bonds vs. cash, most people I meet are unaware of their asset allocation. Many have no idea what it “should be” for their stage of life and goals.

If you’re like me and don’t understand how Twitter makes money and why anyone would want to buy it, let that thought make you dig into what you really do own and invest in. I’ve heard the phrase “no one will care about your money more than you” used a lot recently. Take a few minutes over the next several days and figure out what your current asset allocation is and what you’d like it to be and then take a look at your current holdings to see if there are investments that might not fit with your goals.

This investment risk profile can help you determine where you might want to be from a top level asset allocation standpoint. To dig a layer deeper, here is a fairly technical article and a practical one as well to help you evaluate your investment holdings.  Remember, you aren’t investing to own the “cool stuff.” You invest for one reason and one reason only: to make your money grow over time.

 

 

Anatomy of an Investment Mistake

July 22, 2016

I saw an email from a soon-to-be-retired employee recently, saying that he thought that he made an investing mistake and was looking for some help in correcting it. Here’s the mistake he made. When the stock market tumbled for a couple days because of the British exit from the E.U. (Brexit), he jumped out of the stock market. He moved his portfolio from 60% stocks/40% bonds and cash to 100% stable value because he was afraid the market would continue to drop like it did in 2008.

Well, after two days of going down, the market went back up and within two weeks, it was higher than it was the day before Brexit. The question he asked was “When should we get back in: when it drops to the level when we got out or lower?” There are a few flaws in his thought process.

Issue #1: Selling (or buying for that matter) based on emotions and news events usually ends poorly. In not too distant memory, we have seen the dot-com bubble burst, 9/11, Enron, the housing market collapse, the stock market collapse of ’08 and an economy that is 7+ years into one of the most lackluster recoveries ever, and the stock market is near all time highs! Markets go up. Markets go down. But over time, there has historically been an uptrend given enough time.

One of the things I tell people when they are worried about how the market will respond to a news event is “emotions are the enemy of good decision making.” Yeah, it’s not inspirational. It doesn’t rhyme, and it’s not all that compelling as a standalone statement. But it’s true, and I’ve seen it have horrible consequences for people time and time again.

If you are thinking about changing your investment mix based on a news event, don’t! Go take a nice walk, turn off the TV, play your favorite tunes and let some time pass. Markets overreact…in both directions. If there is a huge sell-off on Monday, chances are that logic and reason will come back into the market, and there will be a few up days after a massive sell off.

Cool your jets and maintain your long term asset allocation. Talk with a financial professional if you have one in your life. Don’t let your emotions be the enemy of your decision making process.

Issue #2: In his question, he assumes that the market will, one of these days, be lower than when they sold off the stock portion of their accounts.  It may never be that low again. People who sold in ’08 and wanted to buy back in when the market got that low again are still sitting around waiting for that to happen. Their wait may be eternal (or not).

The logical flaw in this argument is a lot like the “sunk cost fallacy.” You’ve already made the sell decision and are now tied to the results of that decision emotionally. Looking into the rear view mirror isn’t helpful in this case. Look forward. It’s a difficult skill to apply, but don’t allow yourself to fall into the sunk cost fallacy.

Issue #3: The reason he sold off a big chunk of his 401(k) and went to stable value is that he is considering retirement in the not too distant future. It makes sense to want to be more conservative in that case but it’s too drastic of a change. If he had been considering retirement for some time now, maybe a few years ago would have been an appropriate time to start making small changes to his long term asset allocation.

For instance, I meet annually with someone who has a retirement goal of 12-15 years. She was 100% stocks and 0% bonds and cash when we first met 5-6 years ago. Rather than selling her existing holdings, she changed her future 401(k) contributions to 75% bonds/cash and 25% stocks. She recently moved future contributions to 100% bonds/cash, and when she hears that the stock market hits a new high, she moves 1% of her account to stable value. Her goal is to be at 50% stocks, 50% bonds/cash at and during retirement.

Do you know your long term asset allocation preferences? Do you have a plan in place to shift from where you are now to where you want to be when you’re 98 years old? Review your asset allocation today, see if it’s consistent with your investment risk tolerance and then develop a plan to get from point A to point B over the course of time. Remain patient and don’t let emotions get in the way.

Over the course of time, we all make mistakes. I have, you have, and the odds are high that we’ll make even more in the future. But some mistakes are preventable, and we can hopefully learn from the mistakes of others so that we don’t make them as well. If you can remain emotionally detached from your investments when bad news is happening, avoid the sunk cost fallacy and have a clear vision about your long term investment strategy (and stick to it), you will put yourself in a great position for long term financial success.

 

 

Investing Made Easy

July 18, 2016

Can investing be easy? How can you become a more informed, savvy investor without learning a lot of extra financial jargon? Investing really doesn’t have to be that hard. Consider following these three simple principles:

Know Yourself

Successful investing starts with knowing yourself: how you like to make decisions, whether you like advice or you like to do it yourself, and what you do when the going gets rough. The first step is to figure out your investing risk tolerance, which is how much of your invested money you’d be willing to risk losing in order to make a profit. Try and quantify that in real dollar amounts, e.g., you have $1,000 to invest, and you’d be willing to risk it going down to $900 (a ten percent loss) in order to have a good shot at ending up with $1,150 (a fifteen percent gain).

Would that change if your investment was $10,000 or $100,000? Are you a conservative, moderate or aggressive investor? Make sure to take a risk tolerance questionnaire like this one to double check your assumptions.

The next step is to ask yourself how involved you want to be in the day to day management of your investment portfolio. Are you more of a “hands-on” or a “hands off” type? A hands-on investor is actively involved in designing a portfolio, setting target weights for different types of investments and monitoring/re-balancing the portfolio regularly. A hands-on investor may favor individual stocks or actively managed mutual funds or setting up their own asset allocation (mix of investment types) of index mutual funds. The hands-off investor is looking for a one-stop shopping solution and is more likely to favor pre-mixed portfolios like target date mutual funds or use a robo-advisor to set the strategy and automatically re-balance.

Finally, ask yourself if you like to do it yourself or if you’re the sort of person that likes advice. There are many options for do-it-yourself folks, including low-fee financial services firms where you can invest on your own without an advisor. If you are the type who likes having a coach, consider working with a fee-only CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, professional who is paid only by clients and not by commissions or brokerage fees. Make sure to check your advisor’s background with FINRA or with the SEC if they’re a registered investment advisor.

Set a Clearly Defined Goal

When will you need to use the money? Certain types of investments are better suited to certain time periods due to their levels of risk. If you need access to the funds in less than three years, stick with very low risk investments like savings accounts, money market funds and CDs. A stock fund is no place for your savings for a home down payment!

If you will use the money in three to seven years, consider adding some high quality bonds or bond funds. Adding in stocks makes more sense for goals of seven to ten years or longer, like your retirement account. The longer your time horizon until you need the money, the more you can consider adding stocks and stock mutual funds to your portfolio.

How much do you need your investment to be worth in order to make your goal? That’s called your “investment return.” Take the home down payment scenario: The most important thing is that you don’t lose any money, and your investment return is secondary. However, with a large, far-off target like retirement, you may need to achieve a 6-7% average annual return in order to meet your goals.

Match Investments to Your Goals and Preferences

Your investments should match when you need the money (time horizon), your required growth (required return), your investment risk tolerance and whether you are hands-on or a hands off investor. According to fellow CFP® Kelley Long, choosing investments is a lot like choosing a pizza.  You can customize it to fit your tastes.

For a longer term, aggressive investor, you could consider adding 5 to 10 percent in stocks to a typical portfolio mix (for example, moving to a 70% stocks/30% bonds instead of a 60/40 mix). A more conservative investor would add 5-10% to their bond allocation (a 50/50 mix using the previous example). The bottom line is that with some easy tweaks, you can customize your investment portfolio to suit your tastes.

How do you make your investment decisions? Email me at [email protected]. You can also tweet them to me @cynthiameyer_FF

 

How to Protect Your 401(k) After Brexit

June 27, 2016

Will the “Brexit” affect your 401(k)? Global stock markets fell on the news that voters in Great Britain voted narrowly to leave the European Union. Investors don’t like uncertainty, and there will be plenty of that during the next few years as Great Britain and the E.U. sort out the terms of their divorce. Employees are worried, calling our Financial Helpline to ask whether they should react now to protect their retirement savings. Here are some questions to ask to determine what action, if any, is needed:

Does my overall portfolio match my risk tolerance?

Does all the news about the Brexit have you compulsively checking your portfolio during the day? Are you tempted to throw in the towel and put everything in the lowest risk investment possible? If that’s the case, then maybe it would be a good time to double check your investment risk tolerance.

Try downloading our risk tolerance and asset allocation worksheet, a questionnaire which help you determine your risk tolerance and time horizon to get an idea of what investment mix is best for you. Compare the results to your current portfolio mix. If they line up, you don’t need to re-balance. If there is a big discrepancy, you may want to make some changes. This blog post from my colleague Scott Spann, PhD, CFP® offers some guidance on choosing the right investments in your 401(k).

Keep in mind that investing in stocks and bonds always involves some financial risk. Bad days or even years in the stock market are completely normal. However the risk of not investing in stocks and bonds means that the money you save will lose purchasing power over long periods due to inflation (the rising cost of living).

Is my stock portfolio well-diversified by sector?

My fellow planner Cyrus Purnell, CFP® noted that, “Even if you have the right mix of stocks, bonds and cash, it is worth checking to see if your holdings are sector heavy. The Brexit shock is beating up some sectors more than others. If you have stock funds that are focused on financials (banks, brokerage firms and investment managers), you may see more than the average downturn.” International funds focused on Europe are also likely to have some hiccups as Brexit gets sorted out. “If you are running into high concentrations of sectors, consider indexing,” he added.

When is the last time I ran a retirement calculator?

The reason you’re investing in your 401(k) is to build a nest egg for retirement. Measure your success against whether or not you are on track to achieve your retirement goals, not from the highest balance on your 401(k) statement. Now is a great time to run an updated retirement calculator to see if you are on track, given your savings and reasonable projections for your rate of return and inflation. You can use our Retirement Estimator for a basic check in to see if you are on track. You can also use the calculator to model different scenarios using different rates of return to see what happens.

Be realistic in your estimates: recent research from the McKinsey Global Institute suggests investors lower their expectations for average annual US stock returns to 4 to 6.5%. It’s better to use a conservative expected rate of return. If you’re wrong about it, you’ll be happily surprised, but if you’re right, you’ll be adequately prepared.

Do you have a personal finance question you’d like answered on the Monday blog? Please email me at [email protected]. You can also follow me on Twitter at @cynthiameyer_FF

 

How to Build Your Own “Hedge Fund”

June 02, 2016

Hedge funds have long been considered the sexiest investments. Part of it is that they’re exclusive, legally limited to “accredited investors” and financially limited to those who can afford their high fees (typically a management fee of 1-2% plus about 20% of the fund’s performance). They’re also the largely unregulated bad boy of the financially world, which allows them to use complex investments and strategies to try to outperform or hedge against the market for higher returns and/or lower risk.

I’ve always been skeptical of hedge funds though, so I was interested to read an article titled “Hedging on the Case Against Hedge Funds.” It defends hedge funds from a lot of criticism they’ve been getting lately for charging those high fees while producing disappointing performance numbers. (For example, Warren Buffett is on track to win a $1 million bet that a simple S&P 500 index fund would beat a group of top hedge funds over 10 years.)

The article makes the case that hedge funds can’t be expected to always outperform the stock market when stocks are doing particularly well. After all, many hedge funds are designed to “hedge” against the market so while they may not do as well when stocks are up, they should do better when stocks are down. But the article still ends up arguing that hedge fund fees are too high and that they perform too similarly to the stock market rather than acting as a true hedge. Fortunately, there are ways to get that type of hedging without paying such high fees.

For example, one strategy is the “permanent portfolio,” described by the late investment author Harry Browne in his book Fail Safe Investing. The concept is to divide your money with 25% each to stocks, long term government bonds, gold, and cash. The idea is that since stocks tend to do best during prosperity, long term government bonds during deflationary recessions, gold during periods of rising inflation (which can be bad for both stocks and bonds), and cash during “tight money” recessions when all the others may lose value, part of the portfolio should always be doing okay no matter what the economy is doing. By periodically re-balancing, you would sell some of the best performing investments while they’re priced relatively high and buy more of the worst performing ones while they’re priced relatively low. This can reduce your risk and increase your returns.

The numbers speak for themselves. From the year the book was published in 1999 to 2015, the permanent portfolio earned a 6.13% compound annualized return compared to 5.76% for a traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation and 4.89% for the S&P 500. More impressively, the permanent portfolio’s worst year was a loss of only -3% vs. -20% for the traditional portfolio and -37% for the S&P 500.

Unlike the high fees charged by hedge funds and other active managers, the portfolio can also be created with a mix of low cost index funds. The value of this shouldn’t be overlooked. A study comparing the model portfolio allocations of various financial institutions found that the difference in returns between the best performing portfolio (9.72%) and the worst (9.19%) from 1973-2015 was about half a percentage point. Since the average active stock fund charges .86% in expenses and the average stock index fund charges .11%, going from index to active funds could have turned the best performing portfolio allocation into the worst! (And no, active funds don’t generally make up for their higher fees with higher performance.)

So does this mean you should invest in the permanent portfolio? Not necessarily. You just need to make sure your portfolio is broadly diversified beyond the stock market (including more conservative investments like government bonds and cash and real assets like gold or real estate) and has low costs. If you do that, there’s a good chance you’ll actually outperform most hedge funds. Your portfolio may not be as sexy but you can take it home to mom and dad.

 

 

 

Don’t Let Financial Advisor Speak Confuse You

April 29, 2016

“You have to get off the plane. I have the feeling that something is wrong with the left phalange”… “Oh my GOD…there’s NO phalange!”

That was Phoebe from Friends talking about her fear right before a plane took off. She had no idea what the parts of the plane were called and picked a fun word to say. Having broken a few phalanges in my life, I learned that word was a fun one in my youth. But what’s not so fun is having a professional, in any profession, talk to you in words you may not fully understand. When I’ve busted up parts of my body, I’ve asked the orthopedic surgeon to “dumb it down” a bit for me and explain the surgery in clear and simple terms.

When it’s your health or your money at stake, don’t be afraid to ask for an explanation of terms in real English, not industry jargon, so that you can make informed decisions. Recently, I had my kids (17 & 14) listen to a webcast about the “basics of investing” given by a local financial advisor. Here are some terms that the advisor dropped during the webcast that he thought everyone on the webcast would understand, but instead they had him lose kids who hear their dad and his coworkers talk about financial planning on a fairly regular basis:

Asset Allocation: This advisor must have used this term about 20 times and spoke of it as though everyone in the room would understand it. A few people did, but at one point a participant asked him what that meant and my kids said “Thank you!” very quietly. They have gone to my office and heard my end of work-related phone calls since birth, but they were confused by this one. The advisor believed it was universally understood. Asset allocation is simply how your money is divided between different types of investments like stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, etc. .

Diversification: This one goes hand-in-hand with asset allocation. Diversification simply means not having your eggs all in one basket. What diversification ISN’T is owning 6 different CDs at 6 different banks or 5 different S&P 500 (is that jargon, too?) index funds.

ROI: The advisor talked a few times about meeting with your advisor (who he hoped would be him!) to review your ROI frequently. My kids didn’t realize it was a 3 letter acronym. One thought it was something like “Ahroweye” and they had never encountered that word before. ROI, for those who aren’t sure, is “return on investment” or in English – “how much money did I make?”

Fiduciary: The advisor mentioned that he always acts as a fiduciary for his clients. That made me smile, but I know what that means. He talked about being a fiduciary about a dozen times, but never took it a step further to explain what that meant. After the formal presentation, one of the participants asked what that meant because he had said it so often. Sadly, most of the participants dropped off before he explained that a fiduciary MUST legally put his clients’ interests first, rather than his own.

It’s sad that this concept has a term that requires it to be done. Most clients of financial advisors would be shocked to know that the advisor isn’t required to put their interests first in most client/advisor relationships. That’s the way the world should work, but that’s not the way it actually works…unless the advisor is acting as a fiduciary. This is a very important term that the advisor simply assumed that the audience would understand.

There are a whole lot more terms that I hear advisors use with regularity that the general public wouldn’t understand initially. I will throw some more of them out there in a future blog post. Whether you’re talking about phalanges, uvulas, or hedge funds, the key is to make sure that the professional having this conversation with you slows down and makes sure you understand and don’t allow yourself to say “yes” to a surgery or an investment until you are completely confident that you have all the information you need to make the best decision possible.

 

 

Choosing Investments is Like Choosing a Pizza

April 20, 2016

When financial planners talk about how to invest your money in the market, we often discuss dividing it up among stocks, bonds and cash (also known as your asset allocation). But then when you actually go to make your investment choices, there’s a chance that not one of the options will have the word “stock” or “cash” in it. One of the most confusing things about investing and financial instruments is the fact that there are so many words that mean the same thing. For example: stock, equity, share, capital, blue chip, mid cap, small cap, large cap …they all generally refer to the same thing: ownership in a public company. Likewise, bonds, fixed income, municipals, T-bills, etc. are all referring to similar debt instruments used by companies and governments to finance operations and projects.

I often think that if more people understood that many of the financial terms we hear refer to the same thing that there would be a lot less stress around investing and everyone would feel more comfortable taking advantage of the growth that investing in the markets can offer. So I thought I’d try instead to describe a metaphor that is near and dear to my heart to try to make it easier to understand the different options out there: pizza. When it comes to pizza, there are four main options for how to get a delicious pie onto your plate (on a sliding scale of cost and effort) similar to the options available for investing for long-term goals:

  1. Make your own from scratch
  2. Buy pre-made frozen
  3. Pay someone to deliver it to you, ready to go
  4. Have it served to you at a restaurant

Each level requires a different amount of money and effort. Choosing how to invest money in the market is similar. Here’s how it compares:

1. Make your own from scratch. Making your own pizza requires skill, knowledge and practice, but once you know what you’re doing, it’s the least expensive and can be the most delicious. My husband has mastered the art of homemade pizza, starting with dough he makes from scratch, but it took a couple of years and LOTS of practice (and worthless pizza) to get it right.

To me, this is similar to researching individual stocks and mutual funds and buying them through a discount broker. You have to know what you’re doing or you can end up with nothing, but people who know what criteria to look for and how not to take too much risk can really grow their money. For investors looking to learn the art of DIY investing, start with money you can afford to lose and start reading. The book “Grande Expectations,” was what brought home to me how the stock market really works and why buying the hottest name stock or fund isn’t necessarily the best investing strategy.

2. Buy pre-made frozen. Putting a frozen pizza in the oven and knowing exactly when it’s done (and exactly how long to let it cool so that it doesn’t burn the roof of your mouth) requires some skill and it’s still a pretty cheap way to go. The investing equivalent would be using index funds or ETFs to create your own investment mix. This requires that you understand how to create an asset allocation that is appropriate for your timeline and risk tolerance, but with a little understanding of what the different indices are, it’s pretty simple to put together a decent mix. The trick is knowing when to make changes as time progresses and also knowing when NOT to make changes (for example, not selling when the market tanks and re-balancing even when the market is hot).

3. Pay someone to deliver it to you, ready to go. Minimal effort but a little bit more money. You have to pay to get it to your door, after all.

The investing equivalent would be target date funds. You don’t have to do anything but pick one and let it ride. No pizza or investing knowledge required, you just pick the one that fits you the best (for target date funds, that’s the year that you expect to need the money such as your retirement age).

4. Have it served to you at a restaurant. Paying for someone to make your pizza and serve it to you piping hot along with beverages is similar to paying a financial advisor to manage your investments for you. You can describe what flavors you like and your server will help you pick the best pizza combo.

It’s the same thing with your financial advisor. She’ll listen to your goals and risk tolerance and then suggest an investment mix that is appropriate for you. Along with that, your financial advisor should look at how your investments fit into your overall goals and make suggestions for any changes to support those goals, much like a server at a restaurant might suggest the best beer pairing or salad to start. This is definitely the most expensive option, but if you want a little more hand-holding with your investing, it’s worth it.

In my experience, most people are delivery-types (target date funds will do the trick) but because they’ve heard you should diversify and not just hold one thing, they often think that means they need to choose more than one fund. It’s important to know that a target date fund is already diversified. Just like a pizza is the perfect assembly of crust, sauce, cheese and toppings, a target date fund can be broken down into the perfect mix of large cap, mid cap, small cap, international, fixed income, money market and sometimes even commodities – the fancy way of saying stock, bond and cash funds. But instead of you having to figure out how much of each to select, that decision is made by experts who specialize in asset allocation – just like the pizza chef knows the best mix of ingredients according to the type of pizza you ordered. Now, who’s hungry for pizza?

Don’t Make These Common Investing Mistakes With Your 401(k)

March 17, 2016

In our CEO’s new book, What Your Financial Advisor Isn’t Telling You: 10 Essential Truths You Need to Know About Your Money, Liz Davidson writes about how the best place to invest your money is often where you made that money: your workplace. While most people generally understand the value of contributing to their retirement plan, there’s a lot of confusion about how they should choose investments. Here are the biggest mistakes I see people making: Continue reading “Don’t Make These Common Investing Mistakes With Your 401(k)”

3 Ways to Make Market Volatility Work For You

February 15, 2016

Does the recent market volatility make you afraid to look at your 401(k) statement? Maybe it’s time to think about adopting a portfolio rebalancing strategy. Rebalancing is the process of periodically selling or buying investments in your portfolio in order to maintain your target mix of investments over time. It helps you keep the level of risk in your portfolio stable by taking some profits from those funds that are now taking up more space in your portfolio than originally intended – usually because they grew in value – and buying more of the funds that are now taking up less space than you intended, possibly because they fell in value. Since stocks, bonds and other investments tend to move up and down at different times, implementing a regular rebalancing strategy with a diversified portfolio mix helps you “buy low, sell high” over the long haul. Continue reading “3 Ways to Make Market Volatility Work For You”

Financial Lessons From a Rugby Field

December 11, 2015

As I write this, I have clothing in the dryer and when it’s done, I’m throwing some of it in a bag and hitting the road. The university where I played rugby is playing in the college national championships this weekend. Some of my old teammates are the coaches and I’m still involved with the team in various capacities. I will probably be watching game tape of our Saturday opponent in the round of four and if we win (yes, I still say “we” when talking about a group of college kids playing rugby), I’ll spend part of Saturday night breaking down tape with the coaches for our Sunday opponent in the National Championship game. I’m pretty excited and can’t wait to hit the road to see the boys play with the prospect of a national championship trophy in reach. Continue reading “Financial Lessons From a Rugby Field”

Can You Put Your Investment Plan On A Note Card?

August 10, 2015

Does investing seem complicated? Despite the presence of overly complicated financial strategies and the often vexing financial jargon used by financial professionals, investing does not have to be so complex.Investing is simply a balancing act where the challenge is to find the ideal balance between risk and reward. Continue reading “Can You Put Your Investment Plan On A Note Card?”

All You Need To Know About Investing In 3 Simple Steps

April 16, 2015

Whenever I talk to people about investing, I find that most people fall into one of two groups. One group feels that investing is too complicated for them so they want to hire a professional to manage their money for them. The other group is make up of active investors who try to time the market with statements like “I think the market is too high to get in right now” or “I’m going to wait for prices to come down before I buy” and/or pick stocks or actively managed funds that they think will outperform the market. The problem is that there’s no evidence that market timing or even actively picking stocks really works (unless monkeys or cats are doing the picking). If the vast majority of professional money managers continue to underperform the market with these methods, do you really think you can in your spare time? Continue reading “All You Need To Know About Investing In 3 Simple Steps”

Retirement Planning, Dougie Style!

December 10, 2014

One thing I love about my colleague and friend, Doug Spencer, is his ability to make the complicated simple. Take retirement planning for example. Some people approach retirement planning as though it involves complicated math, an ability to predict the future, and an ounce of luck. Continue reading “Retirement Planning, Dougie Style!”