Should You Pay Off Your Mortgage Early?

December 23, 2016

One of the questions that I have fielded fairly often in my career as a financial planner is about paying off a mortgage vs. keeping it for those who have the ability to write a check and pay it off all at once. I have had a lot of discussions with my friends who are in financially -oriented careers as well as with friends who have no financial background but who always show an ability to use common sense. After years of having this same debate, we have found that there is no true consensus around this topic.  But we have come up with the most important points to consider on each side.

In favor of keeping the mortgage: If the mortgage rate is 4% and it’s tax-deductible, the tax-adjusted cost of the loan is around 3%. If you can do better than 3% on your investments, keep paying the mortgage and invest your cash.

In favor of paying it off: For every dollar you pay in interest, you get a tax break of maybe $.25 to $.40. To me, that sounds like losing 60-75% of each dollar. The total interest cost can be 2-3x the amount borrowed over the life of the loan. You still lose over half of each dollar paid in interest with the tax impact factored in.

And in down markets (not that we’ve seen one since 2008), you not only lose money in your investment accounts (think about the -37% S&P 500 returns in 2008), but the interest on your mortgage is lost opportunity cost. Paying off the mortgage in Jan ’08 would have yielded a 4% return with the assumptions above. Keeping it would have cost 41%, the 4% paid in interest along with the 37% lost if your returns were similar to the overall US stock market. A mortgage can be viewed as a means of leverage, and as we’ve seen with the financial markets, leverage isn’t always a great thing.

I have seen dozens of “keep vs. pay off” mortgage calculators. The inputs on the calculators usually include the interest rate of the mortgage, the investment account’s assumed rate of return, and income and/or tax rate of the homeowner, along with other more specific data items.  The one thing that is NEVER seen in these calculators is “How are you wired? How would you sleep best at night? Do you like having a mortgage or do you really despise owing money to anyone?”

The most sophisticated calculators miss the single most important factor in this decision. Which option feels best to you? Financial planning isn’t always about the numbers. Sometimes human behavior and psychology are even more important.

In my experience, the option that feels best is the option that individual will choose. This is the same in your financial life as well as with exercise and nutrition. The things that work best are the things that you feel are consistent with your internal wiring.

There is a lot of analysis, discussion, calculations, changing of assumptions, and an enormous amount of time devoted to this decision. In the end, I’ve seen that what matters is the emotional viewpoint of each individual. Almost always, emotions outrank number crunching in this kind of analysis.